Production Simulation Method of High Proportion New Energy Power System Based on Interval Probability

With the large-scale new energy connected to the grid, its volatility and randomness bring challenges to the power system increasingly prominent. It is urgent to study how to reduce or avoid the wind and light cutting load and evaluate the reliability of power system reasonably. This study introduces a stochastic production simulation algorithm utilizing interval probability. Initially, a maintenance strategy for the units is developed using the equal reserve capacity approach, and unit commitment is established through mixed integer linear programming. Next, scenario reduction is performed based on interval probability assessments, and the critical scenarios are selected for scheduling simulations. Lastly, through example analysis, the proposed approach demonstrates its accuracy and effectiveness, enabling it to handle a significant share of new energy integration and optimize power system operations.