A Method for Constructing a Source-Load Uncertainty Model Considering the Dynamic Impacts of Typhoon

The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather like typhoons pose significant challenges to power grid operations. This paper focuses on the source-load variability of power systems under typhoon conditions, aiming to develop a source-load uncertainty model that accounts for the dynamic impacts of typhoons. First, a wind speed uncertainty model is established by analyzing prediction errors during typhoon passage. Next, this model is expanded to develop a wind power output uncertainty model that incorporates wind speed variability. Subsequently, load uncertainty modeling is achieved by categorizing node loads and analyzing the behavior of the commercial and industrial loads, and the air-conditioning loads. Finally, case studies using actual power grid data are conducted. Results indicate that the proposed approach effectively constructs a source-load uncertainty model under typhoon conditions, providing a foundation for future scenario generation and security risk assessment in grid operations.