Whither the price of coffee? An analysis of trends and shocks since the coffee crisis

Abstract This short paper examines two potent issues that affect coffee producers worldwide. First, we estimate whether the real price of coffee received by producers are declining over time, making the coffee growers worse off. Secondly, we estimate how long it takes for exogenous shocks to dissipate, so that farmers can be better informed to manage volatile coffee prices. We find no evidence of any prevalent declining trend, and the time taken for a price shock to dissipate by half can vary widely from 5 to 18 months for individual coffee prices.