How ex ante policy evaluation supports circular city development: Amsterdam's mass timber construction policy

This article aimed to assess the potential impact of policy actions to support mass timber construction through an ex ante policy analysis in Amsterdam. Through a combination of policy coherence analysis and agent-based simulation, the study evaluates 130 policy actions, including 80 specific instruments, for the transition from traditional masonry to mass timber construction. The coherence analysis reveals a predominance of regulatory instruments (62%) and a lack of active economic measures (16%), which limits their impact on circular city development. The simulation tested three instruments - demolition notification, a mass timber subsidy proxy and a carbon tax proxy - to assess their individual and combined effectiveness. Isolated measures, such as material price adjustments, were found to be insufficient due to systemic inertia. However, the combination of subsidies and carbon taxes proves more effective, significantly increasing the uptake of mass timber construction as its cost is reduced and construction companies develop expertise. A key finding highlights the complementary role of recycled concrete in supporting mass timber construction, highlighting the need for integrated policies targeting both mass timber and secondary materials. Improving industry knowledge and expertise is identified as a transformative approach to reducing costs and overcoming barriers to adoption. This research is the first contribution to demonstrate the value of ex ante policy evaluation and agent-based simulation in formulating coherent and effective policies for circular city transitions. Policy makers in Amsterdam and other Dutch cities are advised to implement synergistic instruments, support local material reuse and invest in capacity building to achieve carbon neutrality and resource circularity in urban construction. The findings provide actionable guidance for Amsterdam and similar cities seeking to promote sustainable and circular urban environments.