Development of an Environmental Impact Methodology for Arctic Shipping: Exploring FMEA and STPA applications considering a Dynamic (varying) Baseline.

Arctic shipping poses environmental risks due to the region's fragile ecosystems and rapid climate changes. Effective risk assessment tools are needed to ensure sustainable expansion and to carry out environmental impact assessments. This paper explores applications of Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) coupled with the consequences of a “Dynamic baseline approach” for Arctic shipping environmental impact assessment. Shipping entails complex interactions between environmental, technical, human, and organizational factors. FMEA identifies failure modes and their effects through component-level analysis. STPA examines how unsafe control actions can emerge from interactions between system components. Combining these techniques with a dynamic (variable) baseline, accounting for inherent ongoing changing Arctic conditions, offers a robust methodology. A qualitative case study shows that prioritizing hazards by risk, yields highest concerns, as increased greenhouse gas emissions, black carbon deposition on ice and snow, and response delays to accidents represent some of the most important identified threats to the environment. The use of FMEA and STPA are complementary, and differences are highlighted. The methodology applied, should be representative for the qualitative risk analysis methodology, and while the findings are impacted by the perspectives of the authors, the process followed is intended to identify and rank risks in a consistent manner. Mitigations measures must be in place to target these issues. Constant monitoring of the changing ecological and socioeconomic Arctic baselines supports the responses. This methodology offers a starting point for systematically addressing environmental impact risks in the data-limited Arctic. Integrating failure modes and effect analysis, system theories and dynamic baselines, account for identification of the complex interactions, influencing environmental risks in this rapidly evolving region.