Expansion of the range of the adventive species Metcalfa pruinosa Say (citrus cicada) in Ukraine

Goal. Determination of the possibility of further spreading of the adventitious insect species Metcalfa pruinosa (Say) in Ukraine using modern computer programs: AgroAtlas, MapInfo Pro15.0 (ESTIMap®) та IDRISI SELVA (Clarklabs®). Methods. Computer programs AgroAtlas, MapInfo Pro15.0 (ESTIMap®) and IDRISI SELVA (Clarklabs®), which allow for automated creation of predictive maps of the spread of adventitious organisms. Results. According to our modeling, it was found that climatic conditions throughout Ukraine meet the species’ habitat requirements in terms of a number of indicators: the sum of active temperatures, long-term average annual temperature, long-term average annual temperatures of the coldest (January) and warmest (July) months, and average annual precipitation. The model analysis shows that the potential range of M. pruinosa can be the entire territory of Ukraine, due to the presence of a large range of host plants and the compliance of climatic conditions with the requirements of the species. Conclusions. The citrus cicada is well adapted and reproduces on various wild and ornamental plants that serve as reserves for it. Existing phytosanitary measures cannot reliably prevent the risk of M. pruinosa spreading in Ukraine. It is necessary to develop a pest control system to prevent further spread and reduce the damage caused by the pest. The inclusion of M. pruinosa in the list of regulated non-quarantine organisms of the List of Regulated Pests of Ukraine may be an effective risk management measure.