Future disposal surge: A new quantification approach for predicting waste from external thermal insulation composite systems in Germany

Abstract This study quantifies external thermal insulation composite systems (ETICS), in particular expanded polystyrene (EPS) as the insulation layer, installed in Germany between 1969 and 2022. Employing a bottom‐up approach, it conducts mass quantification, localization at the NUTS‐3 level, determination of installation years, and prediction of future waste for both ETICS in general and EPS ETICS specifically. The methodology involves categorizing the German residential and non‐residential building stock into further subcategories and construction age classes to determine their respective insulation parameters such as insulation rate and thickness providing insights into the distribution of ETICS quantities across building categories and types, construction years, and administrative districts. Additionally, waste stream predictions are carried out through surveys on ETICS lifetimes and single‐house‐level sampling of probabilistic lifetimes. The findings project a quadrupling of annual EPS waste generation from ETICS by 2050 compared to today, with 79% attributed to residential and 21% to non‐residential buildings, predominantly in urban areas. The results of the ETICS waste prediction indicate that currently established disposal routes are unfit to handle future waste generation, underlining the importance of alternative recycling paths for ETICS and improved waste disposal policies.