Toward more robust net primary production projections in the North Atlantic Ocean

Abstract. Phytoplankton plays a crucial role in both climate regulation and marine biodiversity, yet it faces escalating threats due to climate change. Understanding future changes in phytoplankton biomass and productivity under climate change requires the utilization of Earth system models capable of resolving marine biogeochemistry. These models often differ significantly from one another, and most studies typically use the average response across an ensemble of models as the most reliable projection. However, in the North Atlantic, this straightforward method falls short of providing robust projections of phytoplankton net primary production (NPP) over the 21st century. A new inter-comparison approach was therefore developed and applied to eight models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) exhibiting substantial divergence in their NPP projections in the North Atlantic. The basin was first divided into three bioregions tailored to the characteristics of each model using a novel method based on a clustering procedure. The mechanisms controlling NPP projections were then identified in each model and in each bioregion, revealing two mechanisms responsible for a large part of model divergence: diazotrophy in the subtropical region and the presence of an ammonium pool in the subpolar region. This allowed for an informed selection of models in each region based on the way they represent these two mechanisms, resulting in reduced projection uncertainty, enhanced total NPP decrease in the subtropical region, and a strengthened increase in small phytoplankton NPP in the subpolar North Atlantic. These model selections enhanced the decreases in carbon export and phytoplankton biomass but had no impact on zooplankton biomass. This innovative approach has strong synergies with other widely used inter-comparison techniques, such as emergent constraints, and their combination would provide valuable insights into the future trajectory of the Earth's climate system.