Identifying the Impact of Public Amenities on Urban Growth: A Case Study of the Quebec Metropolitan Region, Canada (1986–2022)

This study aims to explore how public amenities, such as school location, commercial centers, health centers, highways, and distance to the central business district (CBD) shape the development of a metropolitan area. To do so, a case study based on the Québec Metropolitan Region (QMR-Canada) is proposed. Using Landsat satellite images from 1986 to 2022, the research employs a Random Forest Classification algorithm, leveraging features like the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Modified Built-up Index (MBI) to map and quantify changes in built-up areas over time. The originality of this study lies in its use of a panel logistic model to systematically assess the influence of these factors on urban growth. Results show that urban development tends to decrease with distance from CBDs, though significant urban sprawl was observed between 1996 and 2002. The model highlights key periods—1996, 2002, and 2007—as pivotal in shaping development. Statistically significant effects were found for proximity to CBDs, main roads, and education centers, while commercial and health centers had no notable impact.