Explainable Artificial Intelligence Models for Predicting Depression Based on Polysomnographic Phenotypes

Depression is a common mental health disorder and a leading contributor to mortality and morbidity. Despite several advancements, the current screening methods have limitations in enabling the robust and automated detection of depression, thereby hindering early diagnosis and timely intervention. This study aimed to develop explainable artificial intelligence (AI) models to predict depression using polysomnographic phenotype data, ensuring high predictive performance while providing clear insights into the importance of features influencing the risk of depression. Advanced machine learning algorithms such as random forest, extreme gradient boosting, categorical boosting, and light gradient boosting machines were employed to train and validate the predictive AI models. Phenotype data from subjective health questionnaires, clinical assessments, and demographic factors were analyzed. The explainable AI models identified the important features, and their performance was evaluated using cross-validation. The study population, comprising 114 control participants and 39 individuals with depression, was stratified based on validated depression-scoring methods. The proposed explainable AI models achieved an F1-score of 85%, verifying their high reliability in predicting depression. Key features influencing the risk of depression, such as anxiety disorders, sleep efficiency, and demographic factors, offer actionable insights for clinical practice, highlighting the transparency of these models. This study proposed and developed explainable AI models based on polysomnographic phenotype data for the automated detection of depression and verified that these models help improve mental health diagnostics, enabling timely interventions.