Global Dynamic Landslide Susceptibility Modeling Based on ResNet18: Revealing Large-Scale Landslide Hazard Evolution Trends in China

Large-scale and long-term landslide susceptibility assessments are crucial for revealing the patterns of landslide risk variation and for guiding the formulation of disaster prevention and mitigation policies at the national level. This study, through the establishment of a global dynamic landslide susceptibility model, uses the multi-dimensional analysis strategy and studies the development trend of China’s large-scale landslide susceptibility. First, a global landslide dataset consisting of 8023 large-scale landslide events triggered by rainfall and earthquakes between 2001 and 2020 was constructed based on the GEE (Google Earth Engine) platform. Secondly, a global dynamic landslide susceptibility model was developed using the ResNet18 (18-layer residual neural network) DL (deep learning) framework, incorporating both dynamic and static LCFs (landslide conditioning factors). The model was utilized to generate sequential large-scale landslide susceptibility maps for China from 2001 to 2022. Finally, the MK (Mann–Kendall) test was used to investigate the change trends in the large-scale landslide susceptibility of China. The results of the study are as follows. (1) The ResNet18 model outperformed SVMs (support vector machines) and CNNs (convolutional neural networks), with an AUC value of 0.9362. (2) SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations) analyses revealed that precipitation played an important factor in the occurrence of landslides in China. In addition, profile curvature, NDVI, and distance to faults are thought to have a significant impact on landslide susceptibility. (3) The large-scale landslide susceptibility trends in China are complex and varied. Particular emphasis should be placed on Southwest China, including Chongqing, Guizhou, and Sichuan, which exhibit high landslide susceptibility and notable upward trends, and also consider Northwest China, including Shaanxi and Shanxi, which have high susceptibility but decreasing trends. These results provide valuable insights for disaster prevention and mitigation in China.