Electricity demand forecasting in Zhangjiajie under the background of “dual carbon”

Abstract Electricity demand forecasting is an important foundation for guiding energy planning. The proposal of the “dual carbon” policy has an impact on economic development, energy structure, and electricity demand, which traditional research has not considered. This work proposes a method for predicting electricity demand under the “dual carbon” background. Firstly, the main influencing factors of electricity demand under a “dual carbon” background are analyzed. Afterwards, the relationship between economy, energy, and carbon emissions is analyzed, and based on macro development trends, major economic indicators such as industrial structure are predicted. On this basis, combined with policy constraints such as energy consumption and carbon emission intensity, and considering the energy consumption structure, a method for predicting the total electricity consumption of the whole society under the background of “dual carbon” is proposed. The maximum load forecasting method is proposed based on the analysis of the maximum utilization hours of the load. The proposed method is applied to Zhangjiajie, providing methodological guidance for the analysis of the city’s economic development, the prediction of electricity consumption for the whole society, and the prediction of maximum load.