NTCP Modeling for the Soviet Union Luna Program with Innovative Modifications

This paper presents to modify the diamond diagram into Octahedron diagram (fig. 3) and introduce a new formulation, Nejat Technology Equation, for correlating technology levels with innovations and inventions through equation. 1 & equation. 2. The Soviet Union Luna program stands as a historical achievement in the era of space exploration, demonstrating the pioneering in space explorations and technological challenges for sample return from the Moon without using any astronauts. This study embarks with an introduction section, investigating into the Luna program missions and reviewing their achievements. The analysis phase involves adapting and to modify general tables provided by [Shenhar, A. J., Dvir, D. (2007). and Schrage, M. (1999)] to align with the Luna program, facilitating the identification of how NTCP (Novelty, Technology, Complexity, Pace) was managed by Luna program engineers during Soviet Union era. It is worth noting that the Luna program's NTCP was evaluated through the analysis of available information, revealing two distinct phases: an initial phase spanning Luna 1 to Luna 16, followed by a later phase from Luna 17 to Luna 24. Fig. 1 illustrates the diamond diagram representing the actual NTCP executed by the Luna program, based on comprehensive article reviews and investigations. The objective is to enhance the Luna program, holding insights from the current international lunar exploration race, exemplified by initiatives like the Artemis program. Following investigations and analysis, an improved NTCP for the Luna program is presented, comprising NP, TS, CS, PF for the initial phase and NB, TS, CS, PF for future phases, as depicted in fig. 1. mark the disparities between the Luna program NTCP and the proposed NTCP. In conclusion, a recommendation is made for the proper classification of NTCP for the Luna Program based on six dimensions (fig. 3), acknowledging that previous research introduced two additional dimensions, which can be represented diversely on the diamond diagram. The proposal advocates for a six-dimensional (6D) representation, leading to an Octahedron diagram, as suggested by Cyrus Nejat. During the data analysis phase, a formulation is introduced, correlating technology levels with innovations and inventions through equation. 1, enhancing the comprehension of the mission's framework. It is important to note that the recent resumption of the Luna program by Russia, exemplified by Luna 25 in 2023, [17] falls outside the scope of this project.