Sales research for hydrogen-fuel-cell commercial vehicles based on Vensim

Hydrogen-fuel-cell vehicles have the advantages of zero emission, and fast hydrogen refueling. It can be used in long-distance transportation and heavy trucks for energy conservation, emission reduction, and automobile industry upgrading. This paper builds the sales forecast model by the software vensim to study the annual sales. Sales are closely connected to cost. The simulation combines the cost of core components through conditional functions which can output the annual sales from year 2024 to 2035. The using cost of energy, energy charging convenience, cost of hydrogen fuel cell engine and hydrogen storage containers are the key variables of the model. Most of the cost data in the model come from published literature. The simulation study data show that the hydrogen-fuel-cell commercial vehicles’ annual sales is about 76,000 in 2030, and about 156,000 by 2035. The forecast annual sales in the year 2025-2035 will have guiding significance for automobile companies and governments to develop hydrogen-fuel-cell.