Research on the Influencing Factors and Prediction of Energy-related Carbon Emissions of Primary Industry in Sichuan Province Based on STIRPAT Model

With technological innovations transforming primary industry’s methods and production practices, reducing its energy consumption and carbon emissions is crucial for achieving the “dual carbon” goal. As a major agricultural province, the study of Sichuan’s primary industry’s energy-related carbon emissions can not only guide the formulation of emission reduction policies but also serve as a demonstration for other provinces. Therefore, this study estimates the energy-related carbon emissions from Sichuan’s primary industry from 2006-2020 using the carbon emission coefficient method, analyses the influencing factors through the STIRPAT model and ridge regression, and predicts the future trends of energy-related carbon emissions by combining with the scenario analysis method. The study shows that the carbon emissions continue to increase during this period, with the carbon emission intensity per unit of GDP serving as the primary influencing factor. Under different scenarios, the peak time and peak value of carbon emissions vary, although the enhanced scenario stands out as the most optimal among them. Based on these, the paper concludes by offering policy recommendations aimed at fostering the development of low-carbon industry.