Research on the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms of supply–demand risks of ecosystem services in the yellow river basin integrating the hierarchy of needs theory

• Spatiotemporal pattern of land-use in the Yellow River Basin changed dramatically. • There is a growing trend of polarization of supply–demand risks. • Climate, vegetation and economic factors lead to improve the supply–demand risks. Discrepancies between ecosystem services supply and demand can heighten ecological risks. Analyzing these factors is crucial for efficient management and sustainability. This study uses the Yellow River Basin as a case study, quantifying the supply and demand for six key ecosystem services and developing a supply–demand risk index based on the Hierarchy of Needs theory. The study also employs Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) to analyze risk drivers, including climate, vegetation, and terrain. Over the past two decades, the Yellow River Basin has seen farmland transform into urban areas, a decrease in agricultural land, an increase in forests and grasslands, and a reduction in unused land. Water yield, carbon sequestration, habitat quality, soil conservation, and leisure services were more pronounced in the upper and middle reaches, while grain production was stronger in the lower reaches. There was a strong negative spatial correlation between ecosystem services supply and demand, with ecological surpluses and lower risks in the western and southern regions. High-risk areas were primarily in the northern deserts and southeastern plains with human activity hubs. Between 2000 and 2020, regions with changing supply–demand risks expanded, indicating polarization trends. Annual average temperature, precipitation, and NDVI positively influenced the Ecosystem Service Supply and Demand Index (ESSDI), though their effects were diminishing. Elevation had a positive impact, while slope had a negative impact. Population density and land development intensity adversely affected the ESSDI, while economic density’s positive impact increased due to industrial optimization, reduced reliance on natural resources, and greater investment in ecosystem protection. These findings are crucial for the theoretical and practical management of ecosystem services and promoting harmonious human-nature coexistence.