AIS-based geospatial analysis on spot contract of dry bulk carriers

The dry bulk shipping market is highly competitive, with many small-scale ship owners engaging in short-term contracts. However, ship owners often find it challenging to acquire new fixtures after each voyage, and there is a risk of wasting time and cost on looking for a new fixture. This study aims to explore how to improve the use of vessels in the dry bulk spot market by avoiding the risk of wasting time. We construct a database to explore where and when vessels get new fixtures during their voyage by combining the automatic identification system and fixture data. The data shows ships without new fixtures during a previous laden voyage spent more time ballasting than those with new fixtures. For ships without new fixtures during a previous laden voyage, we confirm that the elapsed time from discharge and sailing distance to loading areas are critical for vessels in selecting their next destinations by developing a multinomial logit model. A simple simulation of sailing at different speeds from different discharging ports shows potential strategies, such as vessel speed and direction of the navigation, to improve the probability of getting a new fixture.