Driving Effects and Differences of Transportation Carbon Emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

Identifying the driving effects and differentiated characteristics of transportation carbon emissions is crucial for developing targeted and differentiated emission reduction strategies and providing a scientific basis for the Yangtze River Economic Belt. This study adopted a “top-down” approach to account for the transportation carbon emissions of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2000 to 2019 and constructed LMDI models and quantile regression models to estimate the driving effects and heterogeneity of influencing factors. The research results indicate the following: (1) The level of economic development is a key driving factor for transportation carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, with a cumulative effect of 160%. Upon inspection, the relationship between economic and transportation carbon emissions conforms to the environmental Kuznets curve. When the per capita transportation production value reaches CNY 7500, there is a “turning point” in transportation carbon emissions. (2) The population size has a driving effect on transportation carbon emissions, but as carbon emissions continue to increase, their marginal effects gradually diminish. (3) The energy structure and transportation structure have a significant inhibitory effect on transportation carbon emissions. The driving effect of the energy structure shows an “N” shape with quantile changes, while the transportation structure gradually converges. (4) Both energy intensity and transportation intensity show inhibitory effects, indicating that innovative energy substitution, optimization of transportation structure, and improvement of organizational efficiency are key ways to achieve carbon reduction in transportation. It is suggested that the Yangtze River Economic Belt should develop differentiated emission reduction paths in different regions, effectively balance economic development and carbon emission control, and promote the green and low-carbon transformation of the transportation system.