A Predictive Approach to Assessing Microcephaly Risk in Zika Virus (ZIKV) Exposure

A mathematical model based on integral equations has been developed and analyzed, which transforms into a dynamical system of nonlinear differential equations to assess the risk of microcephaly caused by the Zika virus. The model specifically considers a group of susceptible pregnant women. The epidemic threshold (basic reproduction number) was determined using the next-generation matrix method. Sensitivity analysis was conducted on the threshold with respect to each parameter. Lastly, multiple system simulations were performed to evaluate the incidence of exposure.