The Potential Impact of the Three Gorges Reservoir on Regional Extreme Precipitation—A Sensitivity Study

Understanding the potential impact of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) on regional extreme precipitation and its mechanisms is critical for the safe operation of the reservoir and the efficient management of regional water resources. This study uses the regional climate model RegCM4 to conduct a double-nested simulation experiment (50 km to 10 km) from 1989 to 2012, evaluated against the CN5.1 observation dataset. Sensitivity experiments with three different lake area ratios (0%, 20% and 100%) were performed using the sub-grid partitioning method in the Community Land Model Version 4.5 to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution, intensity, and frequency of precipitation under varying TGR water areas. The results show that with a 20% lake area ratio, precipitation slightly decreases, but the impact on extreme precipitation indices is not statistically significant. However, with a 100% lake area ratio, significant decreases in both total and extreme precipitation indices occur. The reduction is primarily driven by the formation of anomalous mountain-valley circulation between the TGR and surrounding mountains, which leads to atmospheric subsidence and reduced convective activity. These findings indicate that while the TGR has a negligible impact on extreme precipitation under its current configuration, the exaggerated sensitivity experiments reveal potential mechanisms and localized effects. This research enhances the understanding of the TGR’s influence on regional extreme precipitation and provides valuable insights for water resource management and reservoir operation.