Natural Hazard Risk Assessments Applicable to Enterprise Risk Management

ABSTRACT Current methods for assessing risks from earthquake and many weather-related hazards are appropriate to inform decision makers and stakeholders of likely future impacts. However, methods for assessing landslide and volcanic risks are insufficient. The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Risk Index (NRI) considers 10 weather, four weather-triggered, one earthquake-triggered, and three geologic hazards. Earthquake and some weather-related hazards include regional design requirements for building performance, and accurate forecasting is available for evacuation in advance of extreme weather. Teams of engineers and scientists examine building and infrastructure performance following major earthquakes, hurricanes, tornadoes, and floods. Performance review lessons become integrated into subsequent building-code revisions. Landslide damage depends on local topography, geology, and land use. Building codes, based on stable-site concepts, have no design provisions for ground deformation, and post-landslide observations focus on ground deformation without considering building performance or resilience. Volcanic activity effects range from tranquil lava flows to violent ash eruptions to rapid debris avalanches and lahars. The NRI considers volcanic effects only close to sources; consequently, damaging effects of distant volcanic ash eruptions are not considered. Enterprise risk management (ERM) seeks to identify, analyze, counter, and control the spectrum of internal and external risks to business enterprises, including distant volcanic ash sources in North America and landslides disrupting key supply chain routes in Asia. Considering possible natural hazard effects from an ERM site-location perspective could be as beneficial as semi-quantitative risk analyses for high-hazard facilities. Properly trained geologists are well-suited to participate in or lead natural hazard assessments.