Empirical Analysis of the Growth Dynamics and Instability of Cotton, Jute, and Mesta in India

The present study focuses on exploring the scenario of instability and growth rates in area, production, and yield of commercial crops viz., cotton, jute and mesta in India, on utilizing Cuddy-Della Valle (CDV) instability indices and compound growth rates (CGRs). For the empirical analysis, secondary time series data pertaining to area, production, and yield of the concerned crops have been collected for the period 2000-2021. Furthermore, to carry out the comparative assessment, the concerned period has been classified into period-I (2000-2010), period-II (2011-2021), and the pooled (or overall) period (2000-2021).The statistical coefficients viz., coefficient of variation (CV) and coefficient of determination have been evaluated. The key findings of the investigation reveal that, during the overall period, cotton reported highest instability in terms of production (i.e., 17.89 %) and yield (i.e., 17.12 %) as compared to the area (i.e., 7.36 %). Moreover, jute and mesta reported low instabilities in area (i.e., 3.30 %), production (i.e., 5.05 %) and yield (i.e., 3.07 %). Furthermore, in terms of growth rate of cotton, the period-I witnessed significant growth in area (i.e., 2.80 %), production (i.e., 13.24 %) and yield (i.e., 10.16 %), as compared to the period-II. However, jute and mesta witnessed negative growth rates in terms of area and production during the period-I, period-II and the overall period of investigation. Hence, focus of attention is required for enhancing the production of cotton, jute and mesta, and future policy formulation.