Environmental Impact of Natural Gas Utilization in Nigeria

This study evaluates the environmental impact of natural gas utilization in Nigeria from 2000 to 2022, employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The analysis investigates the relationship between total carbon dioxide emissions (TCO2E), domestic natural gas supply (NG_SD), and economic growth proxied by Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The results revealed significant short-run effects of both NG_SD and GDP on TCO2E. Specifically, a 1-unit increase in NG_SD raises TCO2E by 0.148 units, while a 1-unit increase in GDP results in a 0.0773 unit rise in emissions. Lagged effects show that past increases in NG_SD and GDP reduce emissions, suggesting the substitution of cleaner energy sources and technological advancements. However, the bounds test indicates no cointegration between TCO2E, NG_SD, and GDP, implying the absence of a stable long-term relationship. Diagnostic tests validate the model's reliability, with no evidence of autocorrelation, heteroskedasticity, or instability. The R-squared (86.65%) demonstrates a strong explanatory power, while the Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) and Cumulative Sum of Square (CUSUMSQ) tests confirmed the parameter stability. The findings highlight that Nigeria’s reliance on natural gas and economic growth strategies increases emissions in the short run but lacks sustained long-term impact. This underscores the need for short-term policy interventions, such as promoting renewable energy, carbon pricing, and green technologies. Transitioning from natural gas to cleaner energy sources is essential to achieve emissions reduction. Regular policy reviews are recommended to adapt to evolving dynamics in emissions and energy consumption.