Spatial-temporal evolution and influencing factors of food production security in China’s main food-producing areas − based on resource constraint perspective

• Constructed FPS evaluation system from quantity, quality, structure and ecological security. • Revealed regional heterogeneity: ’Northeast > Huang-huai-hai > Middle and Lower Yangtze River’. • Northeast region should increase the annual planting frequency of certain food crops. • Huang-huai-hai region should develop water-saving techniques and improve ‘South-to-North Water Diversion’ project. • Middle and Lower Yangtze River region should prevent non-agricultural and non-food utilization of arable land. Food production security (FPS) is a fundamental component of food security, including quantity, quality, structure, and ecological security. Resource scarcity and uneven distribution are crucial factors affecting FPS. This paper aims to explore ways to alleviate resource constraints on FPS and sustainably improve China’s FPS level. Based on the influence mechanism of resource constraints on FPS, this paper measured FPS levels of China’s main food-producing areas using the entropy-weighted TOPSIS method with panel data from 2013 to 2022 and tested the influence of each resource by a two-way fixed-effects model. The results show that: The FPS level in main food-producing areas increased during the study period, with spatial difference of ‘Northeast > Huang-huai-hai > Middle and Lower Yangtze River’. Overall, per capita arable land, effective irrigation area, arable labor quality, and annual average temperature change have significant positive effects on FPS in main food-producing areas. Regionally, land output rate can promote the FPS level in the Huang-huai-hai region, arable labor density can promote the FPS level in the Northeast region, while arable labor quality and annual average precipitation change contribute to the FPS in the Middle and Lower Yangtze River region. This study makes up for the deficiencies of the incomplete evaluation system of FPS and insufficient research on the influence mechanism of resource constraints on FPS, providing feasible solutions for breaking through the bottleneck of resource constraints and improving the FPS level.