Strategic insights from simulation gaming of AI race dynamics

We present insights from `Intelligence Rising’, a scenario exploration exercise about possible AI futures. Drawing on the experiences of facilitators who have overseen 43 games over a four-year period, we illuminate recurring patterns, strategies, and decision-making processes observed during gameplay. Our analysis reveals key strategic considerations about AI development trajectories in this simulated environment, including: the destabilising effects of AI races, the crucial role of international cooperation in mitigating catastrophic risks, the challenges of aligning corporate and national interests, and the potential for rapid, transformative change in AI capabilities. We highlight places where we believe the game has been effective in exposing participants to the complexities and uncertainties inherent in AI governance. Key recurring gameplay themes include the emergence of international agreements, challenges to the robustness of such agreements, the critical role of cybersecurity in AI development, and the potential for unexpected crises to dramatically alter AI trajectories. By documenting these insights, we aim to provide valuable foresight for policymakers, industry leaders, and researchers navigating the complex landscape of AI development and governance. • The development of advanced AI typically leads to AI races between states (e.g., U.S., China) or AI firms (e.g., OpenAI, Google); cooperation is very difficult. • Race dynamics in advanced AI development increases the risk of AI safety failures or geopolitical failures, dramatically decreasing the likelihood of positive futures. • Outcomes leading to positive futures almost always require coordination between actors who by default have strong incentives to compete — both for firms and nations. • Actors with the resources and understanding of the risks are rare, and have outsized potential to increase risk (e.g., by racing) or to improve safety (e.g., via supporting technical safety research). • AI development does not happen in isolation — it affects, and is affected by, geopolitics, economical factors, social factors, and state actions.