Nonlinear effects of changes in the built environment and life events on mode choice: A longitudinal analysis

Many studies have investigated the relationships between the built environment attributes, life events, and travel mode choice. However, few have explored their dynamic, nonlinear relationships in a holistic framework. Using five waves of the Netherlands mobility panel data, this study applies a light gradient boosting machine model to examine the nonlinear effects of socio-demographics, changes in the built environment, and life events on evolving mode choice. We find that socio-demographics and life events have the dominant relative importance for predicting four latent evolving mode choice patterns. Results show that education, gender, employment status, change in working hours, and starting a new job are among the determinants with the highest relative importance. Most life events show nonlinear effects and a few exhibit deviated short- and long-term effects on the modal shifts between car and green modes. Changes in built environment attributes have nonlinear associations with evolving mode choice, but the impacts are rather limited. These findings offer policy implications and planning guidelines for promoting the modal shift from car to green modes toward sustainable mobility transition.