The nexus between connectivity, climate, and land use: A scenario assessment of bio-energy landscape connectivity in central Italy

The complex interplay between landscape connectivity, climate fluctuations, and land use transformations profoundly affects ecosystem health, functionality, and human well-being on a global scale. However, these interconnected issues are often not addressed collectively in studies, conservation strategies, or land use plans, particularly at the landscape scale. This paper introduces, for the first time the CCL Nexus - an integrated approach to studying the Connectivity, Climate, and Land use/cover change relationship - to better understand and resolve these complex dynamics. Additionally, a PANDORA model implementation is presented for the first time to simulate coupled climate change and land use scenarios across different time intervals. The aim is to assess their combined effects on bio-energy landscape connectivity from 2001 to 2020 with projections into the future (2041-2060 and 2081-2100) based on different scenarios. Results show that while climate change scenarios (i.e., the increased aridity leading to a decline in vegetation metabolism and yield due to water stress) have a modest impact, land use changes, particularly urbanization, significantly affect landscape connectivity. Conversely, the naturalization scenario appears insufficient to counterbalance the simulated urban growth. These findings highlight the need for localized approaches in land use planning to address connectivity challenges effectively. Furthermore, they shed light on both the potential and limitations of the PANDORA model in unraveling the complexities of the CCL nexus in Mediterranean landscapes. Overall, the study advocates for integrating the CCL nexus concept into comprehensive multilevel planning frameworks to promote biodiversity conservation and enhance socio-ecological system sustainability and resilience.