Influence of land use activities on predicted soil loss in a semi-arid river basin

ABSTRACT Soil loss due to land transformations is a serious issue confronting the globe nowadays. The research's main focus was to predict future land use and land cover (LULC) and quantify soil loss, which is exacerbated by excessive rainfall following uneven topography, intensive agriculture, and a lack of adequate watershed management strategies. The Landsat satellite data were classified using maximum likelihood algorithm, and future LULC (2030 and 2040) was quantified using TerrSet Land Change Modeler through Markov Chain Model. In addition, the RUSLE was applied to estimate soil loss based on LULC data from various years, and the results were evaluated using sediment observation data. In this research, the LS-factor has been quantified by employing open-source digital elevation models (DEMs) (SRTM, ASTER, MERIT, AW3D30, NASADEM, CARTOSAT, and TanDEM-X). Furthermore, hypsometry analysis was carried out to assess erosion vulnerability at the sub-watershed. The results showed that SRTM 30-m DEM-based soil loss corresponds to observation. Moreover, soil loss is estimated at 16.55 t/ha/year for 2015, whereas future soil loss may be reduced to 14.51 and 14.46 t/ha/year in 2030 and 2040, respectively.