Concept of Cognitive Cargo Port Risk Management

Any business processes in an enterprise are associated with the need to periodically assess possible risk situations. Today, assessing risks in order to control them is not enough. It is necessary to continuously, cyclically and on an ongoing basis carry out risk management, which has already become an integral part of the management of the organization. However, the complexity of assessing and analyzing events associated with an unfavorable outcome dictates to organizational systems, which include the subject area considered in the work - a cargo port, the need to develop and use tools that allow for a comprehensive assessment of activities from the point of view of possible risks, including the possibility of cognitive evaluation of each of the results obtained. Risks are considered as situations of failure to meet goals, as well as target standards. The developed balanced scorecard (BSɋ) contains a set of goals and indicators that complement them. In addition to this, through multi-level hybrid and scenario LP risk models of a cargo port, logical and probabilistic connections between goals, indicators and risks arising at all three levels of management are formulated. The basis of the ontological model is knowledge about the above-mentioned connections, the integrated use of which through appropriate queries allows you to choose ways to bypass risk situations under the existing specified conditions. The query results form experimental scenarios with a multi-approach simulation model and allow you to obtain quantitative estimates of indicators, goals and risks. Taking into account all available stochastic characteristics, influencing factors, and also based on information about the results of the experiment, the decision maker formulates the values of the parameters of the original organizational system necessary to adjust in order to prevent the development and aggravation of risk events.