Identification of a Set of Permissible Risk Mitigation Measures in a Complex System under Conditions of Mutual Influence of Risk Factors

Most works on the analysis of risk management problems in complex systems offer solutions based on the assumption of independence of risk-reducing control actions. At the same time, in practice, control actions on a particular risk factor can indirectly affect other factors as well. As a result, the assessment of the impact of a particular action on the overall risk can be distorted. Therefore, it is necessary to develop methods for selecting control actions that consider the interdependence of risk factors. This paper considers a three-level risk management model for the protected system. The model includes risk factors with their mutual influence, local risks induced by them, and a method of aggregation of local risks into an indicator characterising the risk of the system as a whole, that is, integral risk. Based on the model, we made conclusions about the possible principles of building an algorithm to identify the set of acceptable risk-reducing control actions.