Impacts of Rainfall Variability on Maize Production in Tongaren Sub- County, Bungoma County, Kenya

Maize crop farming in rain fed regions of the world is dependent on rainfall amount and distribution. In Kenya, most smallholder maize farmers depend on rainfall to grow the crop. The objective of this study was to evaluate rainfall variability and its impacts on maize production in Tongaren Sub- County, Kenya. The study applied the decision making theory and adopted the mixed methods research design. Cluster and proportionate sampling procedures were used to select 395 respondents selected out of a target population of 33,602 maize farmers. Primary data was obtained by use of questionnaires for households’ interview, key informant interviews, focus group discussions (FGDs) and observation checklists. Secondary data was sourced from Kenya Meteorological Department comprising of monthly rainfall from 1985 to 2022. Maize yield data was obtained from Bungoma County Department of Agriculture. Analysis of data was done using SPSS and XL STAT statistical packages and results presented in form of pie charts, tables and bar graphs. Rainfall variability during MAM, JJAS and annual rainfall was found to be 20.7%, 20.6% and 14.3% respectively. Pearson’s correlation coefficient between rainfall and maize yield for MAM, JJAS and March to September was computed as 0.05, 0.53 and 0.4 respectively. Further results reveal that rainfall probability of exceedance ranges from 60% to 100% during MAM period while that of March to September ranges from 70% and 100%. The study also established that rainfall variability impacts maize production in various ways such as influencing choice of maize variety (63.5%), maize yield and cropping cycle (100%). Regression of maize yield and time yielded an R2 value of 26.7%. These results provide a useful guide on formulating adaptation policies aimed at making maize production resilient to adverse effects of climate change which may help to improve food security. The study concluded that there was significant rainfall variability which could be linked to fluctuations in maize yield and had the potential to affect future maize production in the study area. The study recommends the need for closer collaboration between the agencies responsible for provision of rainfall information and maize producers in order to address the issue of rainfall variability and manage climate related risks through appropriate adaptation strategies. To achieve this the study further recommends that climate information providers improve on the availability and dissemination of timely and accurate weather and climate information especially rainfall forecasts to the maize farmers so as to enable them make informed farm –level decisions in order to boost maize production.