The Great Juvenile Arrest Drop in Florida

Scholars suggest that there has been an international crime decline since the 1990s. Although prior literature has explored trends and factors that may be contributing to the overall crime decline, there is limited literature on crime trends among juveniles. This study analyzes arrest trends of juveniles from 2010-2020 in Florida in comparison to adults, and to the trends of neighboring states Georgia and Alabama. This study utilizes official data from different crime reporting agencies such as the United States Bureau of Justice Statistics, Florida Department of Law Enforcement, and the FBI Uniform Crime Report to assess the arrest trends among juveniles in Florida from 2010-2020 and compared the trends to those in neighboring states, Georgia and Alabama. The results indicate that there was a strong and gradual decline in arrests among juveniles in the designated years, for an overall decline of 68.33% between 2010 and 2020. We observe a comparable decline for adults, though it was weaker at 56.25% and less gradual. Though Alabama had its own trend, the juvenile arrest decline in Florida was nearly the same as in Georgia, except for the years of 2019-2020 when Georgia’s decline was steeper. We found evidence that the juvenile arrest decline in Florida has been a gradual process, likely linked to gradual underlying causes, instead of a sudden policy shock. Similar trends were found among adults in Florida, and among juveniles in Georgia, suggesting that these trends could have the same driver. We discuss possible causes and implications considering existing literature.