Forecasting the involvement of residual reserves in the development of a late-stage field

In the current context of the energy industry, effective management of residual reserves of fields at late stages of development is becoming a matter of critical importance. Residual oil reserves play a key role not only in ensuring energy security but also in the formation of economic sustainability of regions and countries. One of the main aspects of residual reserves management is forecasting their involvement in development at the later stages of the field life cycle. The presence of old fields, for which the construction of a GHDM is inappropriate, determines the use of various analytical and mathematical models in the analysis and design of development. The variety of such models is great, which allows them to be applied to various fields and at various stages of development. Of the many numerical models, we can highlight those that are distinguished by: ease of use; absence of complex physical and technological formulas; wide applicability for various categories of deposits; as well as the absence of the need for a detailed study of the geological and physical characteristics of the deposit. In our case, we are talking about displacement characteristics (hereinafter referred to as DC), which are a powerful data analysis tool that makes it possible to identify patterns and trends in changes in residual reserves. The use of statistical models allows us not only to assess the current state of residual reserves but also to predict their behavior in the future, which is a key element of effective production management.