Effects of International Shocks on Cocoa Global Production

The global cocoa trade network is highly concentrated. The top 5 producers account for 75 percent of exports. Although recent research shows that agricultural trade was resilient to the 2020 pandemic, cocoa is one of the most affected goods. This paper estimates the effects of international shocks, in general, and COVID-19 on the global cocoa trade. We find that the effect on the top 5 producers is less than on the small-size producers. Also, the COVID-19 pandemic increased production costs, reduced export probability, and created income volatility in small-size producers.