Men and Women’s Employment Status and Union (In)stability: Does Contextual Gender Equality Matter?

Employment status influences union dissolution, often in gender-specific ways. While theories suggest this relationship depends on contextual gender equality, empirical studies remain scarce. Italy, with its regional and temporal variations in gender equality, provides a natural setting to explore this. We measured gender equality at the region-year level using an index covering labor market, family, and welfare dimensions. Using discrete-time event history models on nationally representative data (2004–2016), we estimated union dissolution risks for jobless and employed men and women. Our findings show that as gender equality rises, women’s employment becomes less detrimental to union stability, and employment-related differences decrease. In the most egalitarian contexts, gender differences in the link between employment status and union dissolution disappear—even in Italy, often seen as a traditionally gendered society.