Behavioral Macroeconomics—A Basis for Developing Sustainable Economic Policies

This paper contributes to the literature by demonstrating that behavioral macroeconomic models better explain macroeconomic volatility in emerging economies compared to traditional rational expectations frameworks. We explore behavioral macroeconomics as a foundation for sustainable economic policies by comparing New Keynesian models under rational expectations and behavioral heuristics across multiple economies. The model parameters are estimated using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) for rational expectations and the Simulated Method of Moments (SMM) for the behavioral framework, evaluating their ability to replicate empirical second moments of output, inflation, and interest rates. The GMM, suited for linear models, provides analytical solutions, ensuring computational efficiency, while the SMM, designed for non-linear models, enables greater flexibility by generating simulated data and departing from restrictive DSGE assumptions. Our findings reveal that the behavioral model—incorporating heterogeneity, heuristic switching, and bounded rationality—better captures the persistent and volatile macroeconomic conditions observed in Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies. In contrast, rational expectations models perform better in advanced economies, where agents rely more on forward-looking information. These results emphasize the need to integrate behavioral features into macroeconomic modeling to enhance empirical accuracy and inform sustainable monetary policy tailored to diverse economic environments.