A Discrete Grey Seasonal Model with Fractional Order Accumulation and Its Application in Forecasting the Groundwater Depth

Influenced by the hydrogeological structure and other factors, the change in groundwater depth shows seasonal fluctuation characteristics. Human activities have disrupted the long-term stable pattern of groundwater change, which makes the short-term prediction of groundwater depth important. To cope with the emergence of short-term groundwater prediction scenarios, for the first time, a discrete grey seasonal model with fractional order accumulation is proposed in this paper (FDGSM(1,1)). First, the DGM(1,1) model, which has a relative advantage over fluctuating data, was chosen as the basis for the transformation of the proposed model. Then, the fractional order accumulation operator is used to reduce the seasonal fluctuations in the data series. Finally, grey seasonal variables are introduced to construct the time response function. The proposed model has the basic properties of the traditional grey forecasting model, which is proven to be stable and seasonal. Additionally, the prediction performance of the proposed model is verified in a real scenario of Handan groundwater. This paper expands the seasonal prediction field of the grey prediction model, enriches the research system of the grey system theory and fractional order, and has a positive influence on the short-term prediction of groundwater depth.