Application predictive modelling of Penicillium roqueforti germination in environmental conditions in cake

This study aimed to predict the germination of <i>Penicillium roqueforti </i>as one of the most important moulds in cake in certain environmental conditions that lead to cake spoilage. The germination rate of <i>P. roqueforti </i>was evaluated by culturing in the Yeast Extract Glucose Chloramphenicol Agar medium with different pH, water activity (<i>a</i>_w), and inoculum size at three levels of temperature (15, 25, 30 °C) during 60 days by the factorial experiment. The results of analysis of variance (ANOVA) proved that environmental conditions affect germination significantly (<i>P</i> < 0.05). Predictive modelling illustrated that the temperature did not affect germination significantly, while no germination was seen at <i>a</i>_w = 0<i>.</i>65. The minimum lag phase of germination was observed at <i>a</i>_w = 0<i>.</i>9, pH = 6<i>.</i>5, and inoculum size of 1 000 spores per mL. The logistic model was found to be more precise for fitting the data of <i>P. roqueforti </i>in cakes.