Hybrid Electric Vehicles as a Strategy for Reducing Fuel Consumption and Emissions in Latin America

The vehicle fleets in Latin America are increasingly incorporating hybrid electric vehicles due to the economic and non-economic incentives provided by governments aiming to reduce energy consumption and emissions in the transportation sector. However, the impacts of implementing hybrid vehicles remain uncertain, especially in Latin American, which poses a risk to the achievement of environmental objectives in developing countries. The aim of this study is to evaluate the benefits of incorporating hybrid vehicles to replace internal combustion vehicles, considering the improvement in the level of emission standards. This study uses data reported by Colombian vehicle importers during the homologation process in Colombia and the number of vehicles registered in the country between 2010 and 2022. The Gompertz model and logistic growth curves are used to project the total number of vehicles, taking into account the level of hybridization and including conventional natural gas and electric vehicles. In this way, tailpipe emissions and energy efficiency up to 2040 are also projected for different hybrid vehicle penetration scenarios. Results show that the scenario in which the share of hybrid vehicles remains stable (Scenario 1) shows a slight increase in energy consumption compared to the baseline scenario, about 1.72% in 2035 and 2.87% in 2040. The scenario where the share of MHEVs, HEVs, and PHEVs reaches approximately 50% of the vehicle fleet in 2040 (Scenario 2) shows a reduction in energy consumption of 24.64% in 2035 and 33.81% in 2040. Finally, the scenario that accelerates the growth of HEVs and PHEVs while keeping MHEVs at the same level of participation from 2025 (Scenario 3) does not differ from Scenario 2. Results show that the introduction of full hybrids and plug-in hybrid vehicles improve fleet fuel consumption and emissions. Additionally, when the adoption rates of these technologies are relatively low, the benefits may be questionable, but when the market share of hybrid vehicles is high, energy consumption and emissions are significantly reduced. Nevertheless, this study also shows that Mild Hybrid Electric Vehicles (MHEVs) do not provide a significant improvement in terms of fuel consumption and emissions.