Dynamic Evolution and Trend Forecasting of New Quality Productive Forces Development Levels in Chinese Urban Agglomerations

New quality productive forces serve as a catalyst for high-quality development and act as a critical driver of Chinese-style modernization. This study evaluated the degree of new quality productive force in China’s five major urban agglomerations between 2013 and 2022 using the entropy approach. Additionally, it utilized kernel density estimation, the Dagum Gini coefficient, and Markov chain analysis to explore the spatial and temporal dynamics of these forces and their evolutionary trends. The findings revealed the following: (1) Overall, the new quality productive forces in China’s five major urban agglomerations have exhibited a steady upward trend, although the overall level remains relatively low. Among these regions, the Pearl River Delta ranks the highest, followed by the Yangtze River Delta, Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei, Chengdu–Chongqing, and the Urban Cluster in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River. Nevertheless, significant potential for improvement persists. (2) The traditional Markov probability transfer matrix suggests that the new quality productive forces in these urban agglomerations are relatively stable, with evidence of “club convergence”. Meanwhile, the spatial Markov transfer probability matrix indicates that transfer probabilities are influenced by neighborhood contexts. (3) Over time, the new quality productive forces in Chinese urban agglomerations show a tendency to concentrate at higher levels, reflecting gradual improvement. The developmental state and evolutionary patterns of new quality productive forces in Chinese urban agglomerations are thoroughly evaluated in this paper, along with advice for accelerating their growth to promote Chinese-style modernization.