Short-Term Load Forecasting for Buildings Based on Dynamic Weighted edRVFL Model

Short-term load forecasting of buildings plays a key role in demand management, however, when dealing with massive data, the prevalent practice of training and testing the system as a whole overlooks pattern variations inside data and potentially limits predictive performance. To address this issue, this paper proposes an ensemble deep random vector functional link (edRVFL) model that combines adaptive ensemble clustering and dynamic weighting strategy for load forecasting of an industrial building. Firstly, the adaptive ensemble clustering that combines ordering points to identify the clustering structure and K nearest neighbor is employed to determine the electricity load usage patterns. Subsequently, the improved particle swarm optimization algorithm is applied to adjust the weights of load curves in different typical day scenarios. Finally, a dynamic weighting strategy is designed to dynamically assign model weights to two clusters, where one matches the type of predicted load pattern for the day being forecasted and another for the cluster of the previous day. The experiment in a real building verifies the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm, which has higher prediction accuracy than other comparison algorithms including one-week interval and different ensemble clustering.