Space-time evolution of urban flood resilience and its scenario simulation research: A case study of Zhejiang Province, China

Recent years have seen a surge in global flood disasters, underlining the imperative for urban areas to enhance flood resilience. To quantitatively evaluate the capacity of urban areas to manage flood disasters and model the evolving trend of urban flood resilience, a system was established for evaluating urban flood resilience. This system utilized both the global entropy method and sensitivity analysis for evaluation and simulation purposes. In light of the intricate and multifaceted factors influencing urban flood resilience, and by incorporating <i>the Guide for Safety Resilient City Evaluation</i> along with key indicators identified in Chinese and international research, we developed an evaluation indicator system for urban resilience in dealing with flood disasters. Moreover, the global entropy method was utilized to derive the urban flood resilience indices. The study developed four scenarios to analyze varying resilience trajectories. Focusing on Zhejiang Province, a region with frequent and representative flood occurrences, the indicator system, which is constructed by the aforementioned method, was applied to evaluate its urban flood resilience from 2007 to 2021. The resilience evolution under these scenarios was also explored. The results reveal an overarching positive trend in Zhejiang Province's resilience across natural, economy, and infrastructure dimensions, with consistently high social resilience. In the absence of external disruptions, all cities within Zhejiang Province are projected to continue enhancing their flood resilience, exceeding an annual growth rate of 1.5 %. Building on these insights, the study identified weaknesses of various cities within Zhejiang Province under each scenario, offering targeted recommendations for resilience enhancement.