Promises and uncertainties in the cultivated proteins market: Perspectives from Germany and Brazil

• Perspectives from stakeholders in Brazil and Germany reveal varying views on the future trajectory of cultivated meat • Cultivated meat is expected to largely complement animal-based proteins by 2040 • Cost reduction and scaling production represent major technological hurdles • These perspectives can support decisions about technological development, entrepreneurial ecosystems and regulatory schemes Cultivated meat offers an alternative to ensure food security and mitigate greenhouse gas emissions from conventional animal production. As the innovation remains in its nascent stages, policymakers require a better understanding of the market’s potential, trajectory and future development perspectives. To support policymakers in developing flexible and effective policy frameworks for cultivated meat, we analyze perspectives about the trajectory of the cultivated meat market by 2040 in a comparative study of two countries, which are both major conventional meat markets and developers of alternative protein sources: Brazil and Germany. We use the Q-methodology to identify future perspectives and examine the influence of conventional meat industry incumbents on cultivated meat governance. Our sample includes 59 stakeholders working on cultivated and conventional meat. These perspectives can aid in decision-making related to investments in technological development, improvements in the sensory attributes of cultivated products, support for entrepreneurial ecosystems and startups, product hybridization, consumer and stakeholder engagement, the development of human capital, and regulatory schemes.