A Carryover Storage Valuation Framework for Medium-Term Cascaded Hydropower Planning: A Portland General Electric System Study

Medium-term planning of cascaded hydropower (CHP) determines appropriate carryover storage levels in reservoirs to optimize the usage of available water resources. This optimization seeks to maximize the hydropower generated in the current period (i.e., immediate benefit) plus the potential hydropower generation in the future period (i.e., future value). Thus, in the medium-term planning, properly quantifying the future value deposited in carryover storage is essential to achieve a balanced trade-off between immediate benefit and future value. To this end, this paper presents a framework to quantify the future value of carryover storage, which consists of three major steps: <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">i)</i> constructing a deterministic model to calculate the maximum possible hydropower generation that a given level of carryover storage can deliver in the future period; <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">ii)</i> extracting the implicit locational marginal water value (LMWV) of carryover storage for each reservoir by applying a partition-then-extract algorithm to the constructed model; and <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">iii)</i> developing a set of analytical rules based on the extracted LMWV to effectively calculate the future value. These rules can be seamlessly integrated into medium-term CHP planning models as tractable mixed-integer linear constraints to quantify the future value properly, and can be easily visualized to offer valuable insights for CHP operators. Finally, numerical results on Portland General Electric's CHP demonstrate the effectiveness of the presented framework in aiding medium-term CHP planning to identify suitable carryover storage strategies.