Rising states and the liberal world order: the case of China

Abstract Many international relations analysts see rising states as a source of threat to international peace and order. Yet they often fail to provide an explicit logic for their argument or to submit their claim to rigorous empirical verification. As a consequence, existing studies on this topic tend to be based more on rhetorical assertions than careful analyses. We argue that there is a need for greater conceptual clarity, transparent logic and systematic evidence to substantiate the claim that a rising China poses a threat to international peace and stability. This topic is clearly important for verifying theories of war and peace. It also has obvious policy relevance, as an armed clash between China and the United States would be an enormous tragedy not only for the people of those countries but also for the rest of humanity. For these reasons, we discuss the case of China; we place it in the context of prevailing discourse on the sources of war and order, and caution against sweeping generalizations and dogmatic assertions. We offer caveats both for colleagues studying International Relations and those in the policy community. We aspire to encourage greater empathy and introspection in contemplating the issue of rising states and world order.