Low fertility in context: the case of Italy

Numerous studies have shown that fertility behaviour in Italy, as elsewhere, strongly depends on subnational contextual factors. With this study we add to that literature investigating how group-specific fertility rates differ across fine-graded local areas’ characteristics. We utilize ISTAT micro-level vital registration records including all births registered in each Italian municipality for the year 2022 and information about parity and parents’ age to construct age- and parity- specific fertility rates. We match fertility data with the municipalities’ Inner Areas classification measuring the availability of (distance from) crucial services, and with other indicators of municipalities’ socioeconomic conditions that may influence fertility, such as per capita income, the share of high-tech workers and the availability of public childcare services. First, we present a descriptive illustration of the most recent group-specific fertility rates in different kinds of local areas in terms of population size, geographical location, and inner area class. Second, we utilize linear regression models to investigate the association between local areas’ characteristics and age- and parity-specific fertility rates.