Disaster and political trust: Evidence from the 2017 Mexico city earthquake

Political trust is foundational to democratic legitimacy, representative governance, and the provision of effective public policy. Various shocks can influence this trust, steering countries onto positive or negative trajectories. This study examines whether natural disasters can impact general political trust and if disaster relief efforts can mitigate these effects. We investigate the relationships between disaster, trust, and aid using novel survey data collected before and after a 7.1-magnitude earthquake struck Mexico City in September 2017. Our findings reveal that the disaster resulted in an 11% decrease in general political trust. Additionally, we demonstrate that geographical proximity to disaster relief efforts may counterbalance this decline in trust. This study contributes to the scholarship on the politics of disasters and offers policy implications, highlighting the role of disaster assistance in potentially restoring general political trust after a disaster. • Political trust is crucial for democratic legitimacy and the effective provision of public policy. • Natural disasters may reduce trust and the citizens’ confidence in the government. • We investigate the impact of a major earthquake, focusing on its effects on political trust. • Our findings reveal that the disaster led to an 11% decrease in general political trust. • Effective disaster relief efforts helped mitigate this decline in trust.