Using Bayesian evidence synthesis to quantify uncertainty in population trends in smoking behaviour

Simulation models of smoking behaviour provide vital forecasts of exposure to inform policy targets, estimates of the burden of disease, and impacts of tobacco control interventions. A key element of useful model-based forecasts is a clear picture of uncertainty due to the data used to inform the model, however, assessment of this parameter uncertainty is incomplete in almost all tobacco control models. As a remedy, we demonstrate a Bayesian approach to model calibration that quantifies parameter uncertainty. With a model calibrated to Australian data, we observed that the smoking cessation rate in Australia has increased with calendar year since the late 20th century, and in 2016 people who smoked would quit at a rate of 4.7 quit-events per 100 person-years (90% equal-tailed interval (ETI): 4.5-4.9). We found that those who quit smoking before age 30 years switched to reporting that they never smoked at a rate of approximately 2% annually (90% ETI: 1.9-2.2%). The Bayesian approach demonstrated here can be used as a blueprint to model other population behaviours that are challenging to measure directly, and to provide a clearer picture of uncertainty to decision-makers.

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Publication Details

Journal
Statistical Methods in Medical Research
Published
2025-02-12
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1177/09622802241310326
Citations
4
Primary Topic
Air Quality and Health Impacts
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
4.80

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article

Using Bayesian evidence synthesis to quantify uncertainty in population trends in smoking behaviour

Karen Canfell, Preston Ngo, John M. Murray, Pavla Vaneckova et al.
4 citations
Statistical Methods in Medical Research
Air Quality and Health Impacts
4.80
article

Using Bayesian evidence synthesis to quantify uncertainty in population trends in smoking behaviour

Karen Canfell, Preston Ngo, John M. Murray, Pavla Vaneckova, S. Behar Harpaz, Emily Banks, Marianne Frances Weber, Tony Blakely, CORAL E. GARTNER, Stephen Wade, Sonya Cressman, Martin C. Tammemägi, Paul Grogan, Michael Caruana, Peter Sarich
article en
4 citations

Abstract

Simulation models of smoking behaviour provide vital forecasts of exposure to inform policy targets, estimates of the burden of disease, and impacts of tobacco control interventions. A key element of useful model-based forecasts is a clear picture of uncertainty due to the data used to inform the model, however, assessment of this parameter uncertainty is incomplete in almost all tobacco control models. As a remedy, we demonstrate a Bayesian approach to model calibration that quantifies parameter uncertainty. With a model calibrated to Australian data, we observed that the smoking cessation rate in Australia has increased with calendar year since the late 20th century, and in 2016 people who smoked would quit at a rate of 4.7 quit-events per 100 person-years (90% equal-tailed interval (ETI): 4.5-4.9). We found that those who quit smoking before age 30 years switched to reporting that they never smoked at a rate of approximately 2% annually (90% ETI: 1.9-2.2%). The Bayesian approach demonstrated here can be used as a blueprint to model other population behaviours that are challenging to measure directly, and to provide a clearer picture of uncertainty to decision-makers.

Statistical Methods in Medical ResearchVol. 34(3)
Australian National University (AU), The University of Sydney (AU), The University of Queensland (AU), The University of Melbourne (AU), Simon Fraser University (CA), Brock University (CA), UNSW Sydney (AU), Cancer Council NSW (AU)
Department of Health and Aged Care, Australian Government, National Health and Medical Research Council
Good health and well-being
Openalex Percentile: Top 6%
Air Quality and Health Impacts
4.80
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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