The real state and scenarios of the Arab-Israeli conflict settlement in the context of the U.S. foreign policy interests

The article analyzes the origins and current state of the Arab-Israeli conflict, as well as outlines and evaluates future scenarios for its resolution, considering the foreign policy interests of the United States in the Middle East. The author identified the causes, as well as the main trends in the development of the conflict for a deeper understanding of the issues. It is noted that the key prerequisites that led to the emergence of the Arab-Israeli conflict were the territorial and national claims of both sides to the Palestinian land, which holds historical significance for both peoples. It is emphasized that the strategic goal of U.S. foreign policy under all American presidents, aimed at establishing freedom on a global scale and ensuring the most favorable conditions for the development of the American economy, fully aligns with their objectives in the Middle East, particularly in resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict. A SWOT analysis evaluating the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats concerning the U.S. role in the Arab-Israeli conflict identifies several characteristics that demonstrate the effectiveness and consequences of American policy in this region. The SWOT analysis indicates that the U.S. role in the Arab-Israeli conflict is multifaceted, and to ensure stability and peace in the region, the United States should consider all internal and external factors, since the opportunities lie in implementing a plan for de-escalating the conflict. These include conducting dialogue between the conflicting parties, involving other influential states and international organizations in the negotiation process, and promoting economic integration in the region. According to the SWOT analysis results, the number of threats related to the U.S. role in the Arab-Israeli conflict exceeds the number of opportunities, and most of these threats could lead to a loss of American influence in the Middle East region. Based on a systematic analysis of the place and role of the Arab-Israeli conflict in U.S. foreign policy, the article attempts to predict three future scenarios for its development such as an optimistic scenario that offers hope for peaceful resolution, a pessimistic scenario warning of risks arising from inaction or favoritism toward one side and a realistic scenario where the U.S. role will be moderate, based on pragmatism, flexibility, and continuous diplomatic interaction. It is significant for the USA to address all aspects of the conflict and take measures that promote peace, justice, and stability. Overall, achieving stability and security in the Middle East requires effective diplomacy, international support for peaceful dialogue, and resolving key contradictions between the conflict’s parties.