Investigating the sensitivity of input parameters on the predicted allowable heat generation costs for district heating supply

The inevitable transformation of the heating sector towards climate neutrality poses a pivotal question for municipalities: Should future heat production be individualized at each building, or should heat be generated on a larger scale and supplied via district heating network? The current planning guidelines advise, that this decision be made based on the heat density of the respective area. While a number of studies have demonstrated the considerable impact of additional factors associated with heat distribution on the economic efficiency of district heating networks, the heat generation has not been subjected to a comprehensive examination. To address this issue, this paper presents a new parameter: The predicted allowable costs for heat generation in a district heating network. This value describes the maximum costs a heat generator of a district heating network cannot exceed to be more economic then individual heat supply solutions. A method for the calculation of this value is elucidated. A local and a global sensitivity analysis of 15 parameters is conducted in python. The findings show, that in addition to area and network parameters, such as heat density, plot ratio, as well as piping costs, factors influencing building individual heat supply solutions exhibit high sensitivities. These parameters are energy costs, the costs of the respective heating system and for the heat pump systems particularly the seasonal coefficient of performance. Approaches for determining the economic efficiency of district heating networks, which solely take into account area and network characteristics are therefore insufficient. • Method to determine the predicted allowable levelized cost of heat for heat generation in a district heating network. • Local one-factor-at-a-time (OFAT) and global Sobol sensitivity analysis. • OFAT analysis is sufficient to identify the most sensitive parameters. • High sensitivity of parameters influencing costs of building individual heat supply